Trade Scanning Software question cont'd...

Another trader had a follow-up question about our Trade Scanning software that monitors actual trades to give us pricing information...(along with our team of expert traders of course, can't forget them).

"How exactly does it work? I mean does it connect to the Steam API and how do you know a price is real and not just a wild trade or something?  Wouldn't a voting system be better?

- Jimmy Fallon's Gangsta Persona"

A quick re-cap of our response to a previous question:

• First off, our software runs 24/7/365. It is still a work in progress and for our site revamp we are going to have it integrated into the site so that we are real-time. It shows prices of trades that occur and the value in keys and/or metal that is exchanged. For now, I go through the output which is a mysql database and examine each trade.
• Many of the trades from the software (80-90%) confirm prices already on the spreadsheet. So if you don't see a price change, it often means that is just where a price has 'settled'. If a trade shows a price different from the spreadsheet I try to confirm this with feedback from my pricers as well as publicly listed prices for items (outpost, tp, trade servers). About half the time a trade is not for the price listed, there is no confirmation in the marketplace. In that case, the price stays the same. What causes this? Typically a quicksell, someone just trying to liquidate. The other half of the time, the price has indeed shifted and after the same research as above, we adjust the price on the sheet. And if there are multiple trades in the database showing a real change in price then we look for confirmation but ultimately require less proof since it is already there. Most often in this case the price is adjusted.

In response to Jimmy's (great name btw) question:

While we can't divulge exactly what happens with the software, it does track trades using the Steam API.  We see the relevant information: the item, the quality (genuine, vintage, dirty, etc), the date and then a value that was exchanged for it.  It can be in keys or metal or both.  When we have it tweaked to be real-time we will have a 'ticker'.  More on that later.

With trades that are wildly out of the market-price range, based on standard deviations, they are automatically ignored.  Anything that sneaks through, say, for a new item that has no average price yet, as I said we inspect each trade so I will just see the discrepancy then.

Voting on item values is not a good alternative to actual trade prices.  I get emails every day from people who think their item is worth a HOUWAR because it has the same rarity.  There are teams of people out there whose goal is to bump the prices of their own items.  Remember the B.M.O.C. back in the early Spring?  Just like the stock market, prices are what people pay (not what owners think their loot is worth).

How many keys for buds? Lawd!

So the price of Bill's Hat and Earbuds are changing by the hour apparently.  As they continue to change hands at higher and higher prices, we will continue to change the average price on the sheet.  Don't get angry at us we are only the messenger.  There is no one set price but as always sellers will try to get as much as they can and buyers want them on the cheap.  Of course there are rumors...one going around is that someone deleted 50 or so.  Well, sorry to burst your bubble but someone would have to delete hundreds or thousands of either to effect the price.  The price jumps are simply due to more people wanting earbuds and bill's hats.  Maybe it's the coming armageddon?  Who knows!  That is all.

Can I have a Holiday Headcase for Christmas, Santa?

Prices are starting to reveal themselves and we have again updated the Australian Christmas items.  The newer weapons are in high demand and can sell above the average prices listed.  However, these prices are what the majority of them are going for.  Strange Festive weapons are very expensive with respect to their non-festive counterparts.  May they go higher once they are no longer available?  Only Santa knows.

One interesting thing we are noticing is the premium traders are paying for festive keys in items.  Some profit-making trades are occurring with festive keys for hats/miscs/weapons.  This is not true for the metal equivalent for the keys.  Most trade in the 3 ref range, and slightly higher at times.

We await how and when Valve will release the final few winter items.  I don't know about you, but I want my Ebeneezer!  Trade on.

Holy Yule Log Mrs. Claus! 10 refined for a hat?

We are deep in the middle of Australian Christmas ladies and gents.  Popular items appear to be the Santa beard (All-Father) as well as the Brown Bomber hat.  You will notice we have been updating the sheet slowly with pricing that we verify several times over before it goes up.  Some items have not traded often or do so for prices with high variances.  The strange-festive items are particularly hard to pin down.  We'll put them up as their pricing becomes more definable.  Can you get a Spy-cicle for a scrap from someone?  Maybe, but most people are selling them in the 2 refined range, that's why its listed as such.  Some items are not released yet as well.  The B.M.O.C. is one of them.  When we know more we'll fill you in.  Carry on.  Happy trading. 

Prices, prices, prices

Where are all the prices on the new items?  Well as you know faithful traders, we want the market to sort itself out on these new items before we put any sort of guidance in.  Some items have an obvious range like the naughty/nice keys and crates.  We can confidently put those prices up, but until we get more pricing witnessed we are just going to let you all figure it out.  Some prices will start to trickle into the sheet tonight so keep your eyes peeled.  That is all.  Be merry.

Our methodology.

On occasion there are inquiries about who the heck makes this little spreadsheet full of pretty colors.  To satisfy curiosity without giving up too much about us we created this post.  We are a handful of experienced TF2 players and traders.  We have many thousands of hours of in-game play as well as trading (if we could only get that time back and use it to save the world, alas).  We also rely on you to tell us if we err.

Our actual methodology is using as many different, credible sources of information that are available.  With the changes in trade chats recently our job is even harder so we try to check, and re-check prices on as close to a daily basis as is possible.  What is credible?  Actual trades we do, actual agreements on prices we witness, specific offers on items, specific asking prices for items.  These all give us a range of buying/selling and we try to reflect that market in the spreadsheet.

How do users know that we aren't manipulating prices?  We take the integrity of the spreadsheet and our reputation seriously.  We have many players who rely that we are giving them accurate pricing.  The best way to answer is that if you are concerned then check a price out yourself.  If you think we're off, tell us.  We have no pride on the line.  Sometimes the market changes and a price changes before we witness it.

You're not strange anymore!

So we've stopped neglecting the strange weapons and added individual pricing and percentage owned (where available) on each and every one of those oddities.  It looks like a lot of crates have been opened and keys have been used!

A few observations:

• Scout, Spy and Pyro crates look to be the most widely opened, however its early and the sniper crates are very popular.
• You will notice the % owned column lacks information for several items, that is because the data isn't available from tf2stats at this time.  When it is I will include it.
• Engie crates are the loneliest ones so far, but as I said its still early so buck up little camper....that Strange Wrench can still be yours.