Monday, January 2, 2012
How many keys for buds? Lawd!
So the price of Bill's Hat and Earbuds are changing by the hour apparently. As they continue to change hands at higher and higher prices, we will continue to change the average price on the sheet. Don't get angry at us we are only the messenger. There is no one set price but as always sellers will try to get as much as they can and buyers want them on the cheap. Of course there are rumors...one going around is that someone deleted 50 or so. Well, sorry to burst your bubble but someone would have to delete hundreds or thousands of either to effect the price. The price jumps are simply due to more people wanting earbuds and bill's hats. Maybe it's the coming armageddon? Who knows! That is all.
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What I think is happening is that people see the prices on this spreadsheet, and sell for higher than that because they want to make more. Then the spreadsheet gets updated with those prices, then people see those higher prices and it keeps increasing.
ReplyDeleteSo the spreadsheet is partially to blame, people have become to trust it too much.
We follow the price changes and never get in front. If earbuds weren't equally as desirable as x number of keys, people wouldn't be trading those keys for the buds. It's that simple.
ReplyDeleteActually I think he has a point, why keep upping the price when the actual going rate is lower? Just because a few people have sold an item for more doesn't even kinda mean everyone will, I'd never pay the current price the sheet has listed nor do I know anyone that would. I'm still paying 2 bills for 1 buds have been the whole time.
ReplyDeleteIt's silly to just "go with the trend" when clearly the price is varying.
I really dont think there is much of a ceiling for buds; atleast on the horizon. Still seems to be plenty of demand. I suppose the absolute ceiling would be 100 keys because then you'd have a good shot of uncrating an unusual, which still seems to be worth more than buds.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it goes there but I dont think the increases have stopped yet. In the meanwhile, we get to see everyone quote the high end price and all the lowballers asking for the lower price. *sigh* I really do think the spreadsheet has caused prices vs its intended goal of advising. And some people dont understand the concept of demand and time either... NO, i wont trade my buds for 22 genuine machinas. "but its worth buds" NO ITS NOT, when you add in time.
Common sense people, if u offer a bunch of stuff for a high priced item, prepare to add a premium for having to convert ur stuff. 2.5 buds in items does not mean u have enough for max head. Yeah, the spreadsheets says genuine wingstick is bills, but dont u think id rather have a bills?! Not having easily liquid items = added cost.
Lastly, dont ask for a discount on my items because "I'm rich" then beg me. I'm not gonna give u my soilder medal for 6 low demand hats because you're just starting out. Everytime I say, well I have a friend who has less than you, can u help them, guess what they're answer is?
Annoe: the going rate is not lower. People are offering out 20 keys readily for buds as of right now. When buds peak and get hit on price we will be all over it. Right now its just not the case.
ReplyDeleteme: some good points. 100 keys is not likely with the sheer # of buds in the market, 8-9% of backpacks have them.
We will continue to follow this price closely. Long-time TF2ers will remember that buds topped out last spring and fell until F2P players came on. Will that same thing happen again? We'll watch and see.
Pay up or get out of the way. There is readily offers for more than the spreadsheet price. As more unusuals are unboxed everyday, the number of buds won't change and guess what they all want when dummping off the unusual? Demand will always be higher than supply, end.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure your intention is to follow the prices rather than lead them, but despite your intention the very existence of the spreadsheet leads to that happening.
ReplyDeleteOn many occasions I have come across traders who point to this spreadsheet as the "official price guide". Whenever somebody unfamiliar with trading wants something, they are pointed to this spreadsheet as a price guide. In turn, people who want things will attempt to pay what is stated on the price sheet, whereas those who are selling will attempt to sell at slightly higher "for a little profit". The people buying don't mind a little higher, pay that, spreadsheet gets updated, next group look at spreadsheet and offer the increased amount.
This is not what the spreadsheet was meant for, but it is how the unknowing or novice trader will attempt to trade, regardless of supply and demand. Even the more experienced traders will point to the spreadsheet when it's obviously higher than what people realistically pay (due to the lag in updates and focus only on previous trades, despite there not being a demand anymore), in an attempt as evidence that they should get more.
The spreadsheet is great for a quick idea as to the value of things when checking out many offers and don't have time to research. However, I do think you should put up notice at the top/above the spreadsheet clearly explaining that the spreadsheet is merely the observations of past trades and is in no way indicative of actual value.
Get your collective heads out of yer asses people! Buds are wanted items and all the new players now want em. Most of the prices go down then one goes up and everyone who doesnt have it bitches!! I think you guys doa great job at showing wahts up in tf2 economy. People need to know that you are just posting whats trading for what adn then reporting it. When buds fell in price last year you showed that too.
ReplyDeleteXadera: temporarily for some items that don't change hands often that may be the case that the sheet keeps their last price at the previous level. However, over time the market will always win as items are constantly audited.
ReplyDeleteUnknown: thanks! We try and while not exactly how we would put it you are on the right track.
As I tried to post earlier, I don't think that the mechanics of the spreadsheet can work in its attempted "neutral reporting" capacity. Whether or not it is intentional, the spreadsheet itself is easily capable of helping to price-fix. It would seem prudent to leave the buds price undetermined for a little while here, as posting daily-higher values tends to add credence to the ludicrous inflation that is taking place here. I believe it fuels the fire.
ReplyDeleteDude: we can't abide. Buds trade often and are considered a 'fluid' item. For a less-traded item we will and have done this. But I think the fire is already there. People really want buds.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, how many people work to keep the spreadsheet updated? Could we get an estimate rather than a vague "a lot" or something?
ReplyDeleteDespite everybody pointing to this thing as the "TF2 price guide", I can't seem to find much of any information about how the data is collected or how many are collecting it.
I would also still like it to be clearer to the non-veteran trader that this is not an "official" guide, stating at the top somewhere that it is merely constructed from observations of recent trades, if at all possible. I don't care about the buds, but getting the "official price guide says it's worth X" nonsense for things like normal hats and whatnot is getting to be quite annoying ^^;
Xadera: Our methodology was covered here: http://tf2spreadsheet.blogspot.com/2011/08/our-methodology.html
ReplyDeleteWe are only a guide and never claim to be more. That is the title of our page and why there are no absolute numbers, all ranges or +/-. That's best practice and, frankly, it's reality.
then.. unusual hats increase the price??.. in a few time u will need 2 unusual hats to get 1 bud.
ReplyDeleteWell, er....uh..."Admin": no. The price increases because of supply and demand for earbuds and bills hats. This has been going on since late summer. Chalk it up to the influx of new players when TF2 went F2P, and all those new players wanting these "premium" items.
ReplyDeleteSomeone asked to PC Holiday Headcase, and we will hold off on that for now because of its limited supply. It hasn't traded that much and the prices are all over.
ReplyDeleteGreat job keeping up with prices, guys. Just a couple questions:
ReplyDeleteDo you think the price of the BMOC/Ebeneezer will rise now that they're not available, and, if so, how high do you think they'll peak?
Although there is no solid price for the Headcase, can I have a ballpark estimate? Is it in the 5-bud range? The 10-bud range?
Thanks.
The BMOC and Ebeneezer seem to have bottomed in price, at least temporarily. There are a couple observations though: this is the supply of these hats forever; and there are slightly more BMOC's than Ebeneezers while the price is inverted. Chalk that up to BMOC being a more attractive hat.
ReplyDeleteWe won't comment on the Headcase yet. It is a very rare hat though, tf2stats puts it as rarer than HOUWAR as of today.
First of all, what happened is that second-hand keys got cheaper, it gone from 1,80 to 1,50 usd last days. I'm not sure if it was caused because of the current going rate of buds.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that inflates the price is "kids" trying to profit 1 or 2 keys every time they trade a buds. For example, they're paying 18 keys and reselling for 20. Soon everyone will ask 20 because there are people paying 20. Then the kids, not being able to buy anymore for 18, start to pay 20 and increase the reselling price to 22. It's a vicious circle.
Like someone else said, it'll only stop going up when the chance of unboxing a unusual with X keys becomes more worth than buying a buds.
By the way there's a lot of miscs that are better looking than buds. I have almost all hats and miscs and I don't equip buds in none character. The price keeps going up because of rarity, and it's used as currency in the unusual market. Or at least it was.
So it has been written.. by Nostradamus himself (through various interpretations) that they buds will be the first the the Mayan Gods will doom to their grave. Once all have been erased from history, bills will will follow, along with the rest of the items. only then will the human race feel the wrath of these ancient and all powerful gods.
ReplyDeleteworst place to ask, has v.fan been/being duped? Been seeing too many of them traded out, despite their rarity.
ReplyDeleteI've probably went across as least 40~ ppl sellling them
Anon: it doesn't appear that this item was duped at all or very much. The % owned has not significantly changed from the last time we ran it in the fall to today, on tf2stats.net. You're probably seeing this item changed for buds because of the runup in price of buds.
ReplyDeleteSpreadsheet price
ReplyDelete20-22 keys - ppl want 23 keys on tf2outpost and tf2tp
Now it is 21-23 keys - so ppl will want 24 keys for it.
Just delete price of buds and bills from this site and we will see how prices will change in a couple of days...
Lanc: that's not how it works. Buds is trading at 22-23 keys solidly as of today, thus the change here. When earbuds go down in price, and they will, we will reflect it here.
ReplyDeleteI just saying... Tomorrow ppl will be selling buds for 24 keys. Everyone. It is always automatic - when price jump up here, price jump up on the trading sites. And after that you update cuz price is higher - never ending story... (Buds was 17 keys 1 month ago...)
ReplyDeleteBtw - there is limited quantity of buds. And now buds cost more and more keys but ppl still want 1,5 buds for bad unusuals. And it isn't fair cuz 2 months ago 1,5 buds = 24 keys, now 1 buds is 23 keys. Maybe make some note about it so ppl will change unusual price with bad effects for 1 buds instead of 1,5 (sry for bad english but I think you should understand my point :P)
Lanc: last week the price of buds was about 20-22 keys. There were some selling them for 25 keys. It doesn't matter, we still considered the average price at 20-22 keys.
ReplyDeleteUnusuals we don't consider here as they are a limited and subjective market. But you are right in theory - as the price of buds rises unusuals will lose their price in buds.
I know that you don't do price check of unusuals. But as I say - buds price goes up = unusuals price in buds should go down (to stay at one price). So you can make a note about it :P
ReplyDeleteSo.... When are they going down coz I am willing to trade mine for multiple bmoc's and ebenezers haha
ReplyDeleteWhile there is some credibility to claims that people just add one to the spreadsheet price, its not necessarily a bad thing. All the spreadsheet does is inform both sides of the trade. If the buds were not worth what they are selling for, no one would buy them. People continue to buy them so its a fair price. Unless you want some form of market control, then bubbles are going to happen when you have informed buyers and sellers. The bubble may eventually pop, but that's part of a free market. People who are suggesting that the price would lower if buyers and sellers were less informed might be right, but i see no reason why this is a better answer than a well informed market.
ReplyDeleteTo the admin - this spreadsheet is starting to cause some grief... I understand that you have indicated that Bills goes for about 9 keys when it is truly supposed to go for 8. Many of the hats go for that when they are painted with an expensive paint, but the list should reflect the price of the hat WITHOUT the paint. That should also be another note appended to the list - prices are WITHOUT paint and are up to the traders discretion with it using the spreadsheet as an guide.
ReplyDeleteDevezu: 9 keys is the average price for Bills, painted and unpainted as of right now. Buyers are bidding 8 keys regularly for unpainted Bills. Sellers are offering their premium painted Bills for 10 keys, unpainted at 9 keys area regularly. However I understand the difference here with Bills. We will come up with a way of noting the price difference either in a price range and/or a notation.
ReplyDelete