State of the TF2 Market - March 2012 edition

We get a lot of general questions from traders as to what's going on with the TF2 marketplace.  While we try not to comment on day-to-day movements there are some trends we can speak to that are taking place.

Earbuds appear to have topped out at 26 keys roughly and have now retreated back to 22 keys as of today.  Bills has made a similar backtrack from highs of 10-12 keys, now down to 8-10 keys (unpainted 8, white/black 10).  Other higher priced items are also showing similar downward movements although most not as steep as bills/buds.  Standard clean hats continue to flatten in the 1.33 to 1.66 refined range.

Keys fluctuate depending on the influx of new keys being bought but they have remained easily traded in the 2.44 - 2.55 refined metal range.  Some will trade for 2.33, some for 2.66 (or equal value) but more will be 2/5 refined or that general area.

Strange Festive weapons have seen a jump in prices.  There is no clear reason why but the high tier items began to sell higher and higher once buds topped and fell in price.  From a purely supply standpoint it makes sense since these items are no longer available and can be considered a 'step-up' from already higher-priced regular strange items.

For pricing there are a few industrious souls out there asking some exceptionally high prices for the higher tiers but we see that there is a steady market for these items at the price ranges listed.  Their tiers as of now appear to be from best to worst: Medi Gun, Scattergun, Bat, Rocket Launcher, Minigun, Sniper Rifle, Stickybomb, Wrench, Knife, Flamethrower (sorry pyro).  Where they end up nobody knows.

Vintage items appear to have bottomed, particularly the higher-tier hats and weapons.  V. Tossle Cap is the clear winner with V. Procedure Mask not far behind.  Interestingly, a year ago the Troublemaker's was not the top tier it is considered now.  That was reserved for the V. Procedure Mask and just below that the V. Whiskers.  V. Ze Goggles were also up there.  How things change in only a year.

Valve continues to release community items piecemeal every week on Thursdays.  This will be taken for granted and likely to be changed by Valve just to keep you all on your toes.  So far the items have been of decent quality.  The Fast Learner is a popular item, perhaps the best so far at holding its value.  The Teufort Tooth Kicker doesn't appear craftable yet, as only dirty versions appear to be available (let us know if you have one).

Let us know your thoughts also.

F2P saved TF2 and makes Valve lotsa dough

By now most of you have your opinions on free-to-play "F2P" players in TF2.  Like some other gaming platforms, Steam has been morphing into a free-to-play & pay-for-content system.  The game's development was intended this way.  Like it or not the F2P system was very intentional and because it worked, actually saved TF2 so that we still enjoy it today.

Gamasutra has a great article here that explains Valve's strategy as well as this head-turning statistic: TF2 makes 12 times more revenue per month as F2P than it did when the game was sold outright.  Yes, twelve times more.  Another interesting thing is that they do indeed gauge community support and interest in items and gameplay by monitoring forums.  You rarely see news with real data that normally would never be published.  Give it a read.

Ellis' Cap value change effect

An interesting idea just came to us.  As Valve just had basically a huge giveaway to the TF2 community.  When they made Ellis' Cap craftable, the ensuing trading frenzy and price inflation gave back quite a bit to everyone who had one of these formerly useless hats in their backpack.

As of today, TF2Stats.net has approximately 74,019 backpacks with Ellis' Cap.  That is not a perfect # of course.  There are likely more Ellis' Caps out there due to hoarding and Valve only gives Tf2stats.net a portion of the total outstanding backpacks.  But it's the best # we have so let's go with it.

Prior to the update, Ellis was worth a scrap or two maximum.  At today's current price of refined metal, around $0.55 each.  2 scrap are valued at 0.22 refined.  Once they were changed to craftable they jumped to between a refined and 1.33 refined in value.  Let's say 1.22 refined to keep it simple.  That's 1 refined in value for 74,000 (at least) Ellis' Caps.  Thus, Valve gave back over $40,000 to the community.  Thanks Gabe!

edit: thanks Wolverine and BaconCat for catching our math error!

Continued price flattening in the TF2 economy

If you could visualize the prices of all the TF2 items out in the marketplace (and there's a LOT) as the horizon, you would see a panoramic of hills and valleys and some very tall peaks.  With the height of the hill or mountain representing the value of the item.  The highest peaks would represent items like Max/Buds/Bills (we're not considering unusuals here because of their subjective values).

Over the past six months the average height (value) of all those peaks has flattened towards 1 ref.  No matter how "hot" the hat was, it's hill is shrinking.  That's pretty simple to visualize and understand in economic terms.  That is, with such a broad number of items, and with most widely available (except Genuine Maul maybe) their price always goes towards the lowest common denominator - the craft hat.  Without the influx of thousands of F2P players, and some converting to paid players, the price flattening would have been even more severe.

Max/Buds/Bills on the other hand are all seeing a resurgence.  Their peaks in our mountain example look even slightly taller and thinner now.  Their actual values in $ terms has only come down modestly.  Now they appear to be heading back up.  With black market keys/refined metals (thanks sourceop) creating the market's REAL dollar values - at $2 a key and every seller asking for 5+ keys - a Bill's hat is a good investment again.