Official: key waiting period removed for recent purchasers

With a little digging and help from you we can say that keys are now officially tradeable upon purchase for anyone who made a recent purchase within 30 days.  However, as we already posted NEW accounts will have to wait until your credit card is verified or they catch you skimming cards.

Thanks to Sterling Peoples.  Link here.

Key pricing stabilizing

Over the past month to two months the price of keys has been moving towards equilibrium.  There are a few reasons but perhaps the best answer as to why is the underground resale price being around $2 per key.  If you can buy a key legitimately and risk-free for $2.49 and use it right away (although trading requires the 2 day waiting period) then buying one on the black market (more risk) should cost less, just as it does.

Although that does not explain the seemingly "settled" price of around $2 per key.  Our best estimate is that keys are tied to refined metal in a 2:1 ratio in people's heads now (as are buds/bills).  The price has to be near the official price but why not $2.25 or closer?  The market has decided that for now the risk of buying a black market key is about $0.50 per key, that's it.  If there was no waiting period, the value of an illicit key would be less as it was when there was no waiting period (remember those $1.65 key days on source op?).

More recently, the variance in the refined:key ratio has been getting narrower as well.  The buy for 2 refined or sale for 2.33 refined are not unheard of but most often keys trade for 2.11 or 2.22 refined now.  That is an efficient market and the sign the influx of the F2P players have made their mark.  Some people complained about the new players, I say bring them on.  They have reinvigorated the TF2 item market.  With so many buyers and sellers keys trade at a more pinpointed price.

Additional thoughts welcome.

New poll

Speaks for itself.  We all hate converting Bill/Buds to refined and noone trades them that way anyways (even though they can trade more than 8 items rather easily with the new Steam trading beta).  And since we started putting Max/HOUWAR/Medals in terms of buds why not switch to keys?  Your opinion counts.  Let us know.  Be well.

TF2 Google Spreadsheet has moved!

Yes.  The spreadsheet has a new home.  While editing the latest item count percentages which replaced the item counts, I realized that there is never enough room for commentary on the items or what is happening in the TF2 marketplace.  This will allow the spreadsheet to remain the most important item but also to make commentary on the TF2 marketplace possible.  It will also allow more information on statistics to see where people are coming from to see the spreadsheet.