Fall has (at least for the past 2 years) brought a different wave to TF2 trading. Back to school for many traders so trading is lighter during the week and spikes on the weekends. Any update from Valve, however, always changes this and users will open up their backpacks or start crafting whenever there are new items.
The early-summer Pyromania event was a very busy time. Although the items prices have come back to earth - this "Meet the" update proved popular. Valve always mixes things up and the 'pyrovision' twist kept it interesting.
The Mann vs. Machine update from the summer has since passed and most of these items have stabilized in prices. Gold Botkiller items continue to drift downwards but at a slower pace now and may find their bottoms soon and start to drift up - we'll watch and see. From a gaming perspective, the new mode was a welcome addition to the TF2 brand.
Fall items from the Fall key event fell in value quickly probably due to a lot of crates being opened and there not really being a "marquee" item from the crates that everyone typically wants. Track Terrorizer is the closest to this but it has since come back to the key to key + half range.
Halloween items will come into play soon. Some items have been trading higher, with the Spine-Chilling Skull 2010 and Voodoo Juju being the biggest gainers. Some of the Haunted items from 2011 have seen an uptick as well. We will adjust these prices as we see trades coming in but keep in mind asking prices will spike and desperate buyers may skew the market up.
The winter 2011/2012 items have since seen a jump. All-father and especially Kringle Collection have both enjoyed gains - lucky you if you have a clean version of either. We'll follow the other holiday items as well to see if any come into play.
Also remember that our trade analysis software is running 24/7 and as the Halloween event approaches we will step up the sheet updates to more than the standard once-per-day (our human contributors unfortunately can't run all day and night). Our giveaways will also follow suit and we will have a bunch of new freebies for our loyal audience. Until then, keys will continue to be our go-to freebie.
Big site upgrade coming soon. Lots going on behind the scene with relation to that - more information will come later. Feel free to contact us with suggestions, ideas, corrections.
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Monday, October 1, 2012
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Store price vs. TF2 trading price
TF2 trader Shadow brings up a good point, store prices vs. TF2 trading prices:
Shadow said...
"Dude there's a mistake there infernal impaler (clean) should be 7-8 refined and the dirty one 4-6 just like the aspector they are the same price on the store."
Sometimes when an item first enters the marketplace it is close to its store price (or if its a promo from a game, its game price). However, this is NOT always the case. Moreover, two items from the same promo or the same price at the store can have completely different demand on them.
Case in point as Shadow brings up the Infernal Impaler and the Apparitions Aspect. For whatever reason people seem to place more DEMAND on the Aspect. Therefore a higher price can be asked for it. It's not complicated but a lot of traders have trouble with this and sometimes its hard to rationalize.
Shadow said...
"Dude there's a mistake there infernal impaler (clean) should be 7-8 refined and the dirty one 4-6 just like the aspector they are the same price on the store."
Sometimes when an item first enters the marketplace it is close to its store price (or if its a promo from a game, its game price). However, this is NOT always the case. Moreover, two items from the same promo or the same price at the store can have completely different demand on them.
Case in point as Shadow brings up the Infernal Impaler and the Apparitions Aspect. For whatever reason people seem to place more DEMAND on the Aspect. Therefore a higher price can be asked for it. It's not complicated but a lot of traders have trouble with this and sometimes its hard to rationalize.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Risers and fallers
The stock market has daily risers and fallers. It's an actual metric that is used to gauge the overall up or down direction of the market. In TF2, it's not exactly the same but there are certainly items that rise and fall. Newer items tend to start out strong and fall with time. However that isn't always the case, as we see currently with Essential Accessories which are a continually popular item and have risen in price recently.
Other items of note are the Salvaged Crate #30 items. There is a real sense of scarcity to the more popular of these strange items (Machina, Kritzkrieg) that even carries over to the Gunslinger. Mackerel and Caber have a little bump, but there are still plenty of sellers at their respectively lower prices. Crate #30 continues to be kept in short supply.
Keys are slowly becoming more available this weekend. Many traders who bought at 2 refined and 2 reclaimed will not be thrilled to know that the high prices they paid will likely soon bring the price back to equilibrium. Keys are starting (slowly) to sell again for 2.44 and 2.33 refined...although this is not the official price yet as the influx of keys could be temporary.
Newer genuine items from the Saints Row promo are now tradeable and sell as a set (mostly) for around Bills Hat in price. This is considered a lower price for a set of new genuines so the game must have sold well or was considered cheap by buyers. Football Manager items have a strong price range around buds for the set. Trine 2 and Assassin's Creed items are not yet tradeable. The heavy hat for Trine 2 is a love/hate item apparently. Assasin's Creed items look to be popular, although they are only for the spy which will be interesting to see if they trade for high value.
The Halloween items have quieted considerably as it would be expected. The prices for them will likely fall (if not already) and we will adjust as we see how they sell. They are not a typical item being they are usable only 3 days about per month and on Halloween events. Buy them on the cheap only is our suggestion. ("scrap -" means a scrap maximum per item).
Other items of note are the Salvaged Crate #30 items. There is a real sense of scarcity to the more popular of these strange items (Machina, Kritzkrieg) that even carries over to the Gunslinger. Mackerel and Caber have a little bump, but there are still plenty of sellers at their respectively lower prices. Crate #30 continues to be kept in short supply.
Keys are slowly becoming more available this weekend. Many traders who bought at 2 refined and 2 reclaimed will not be thrilled to know that the high prices they paid will likely soon bring the price back to equilibrium. Keys are starting (slowly) to sell again for 2.44 and 2.33 refined...although this is not the official price yet as the influx of keys could be temporary.
Newer genuine items from the Saints Row promo are now tradeable and sell as a set (mostly) for around Bills Hat in price. This is considered a lower price for a set of new genuines so the game must have sold well or was considered cheap by buyers. Football Manager items have a strong price range around buds for the set. Trine 2 and Assassin's Creed items are not yet tradeable. The heavy hat for Trine 2 is a love/hate item apparently. Assasin's Creed items look to be popular, although they are only for the spy which will be interesting to see if they trade for high value.
The Halloween items have quieted considerably as it would be expected. The prices for them will likely fall (if not already) and we will adjust as we see how they sell. They are not a typical item being they are usable only 3 days about per month and on Halloween events. Buy them on the cheap only is our suggestion. ("scrap -" means a scrap maximum per item).
Friday, September 9, 2011
Key pricing stabilizing
Over the past month to two months the price of keys has been moving towards equilibrium. There are a few reasons but perhaps the best answer as to why is the underground resale price being around $2 per key. If you can buy a key legitimately and risk-free for $2.49 and use it right away (although trading requires the 2 day waiting period) then buying one on the black market (more risk) should cost less, just as it does.
Although that does not explain the seemingly "settled" price of around $2 per key. Our best estimate is that keys are tied to refined metal in a 2:1 ratio in people's heads now (as are buds/bills). The price has to be near the official price but why not $2.25 or closer? The market has decided that for now the risk of buying a black market key is about $0.50 per key, that's it. If there was no waiting period, the value of an illicit key would be less as it was when there was no waiting period (remember those $1.65 key days on source op?).
More recently, the variance in the refined:key ratio has been getting narrower as well. The buy for 2 refined or sale for 2.33 refined are not unheard of but most often keys trade for 2.11 or 2.22 refined now. That is an efficient market and the sign the influx of the F2P players have made their mark. Some people complained about the new players, I say bring them on. They have reinvigorated the TF2 item market. With so many buyers and sellers keys trade at a more pinpointed price.
Additional thoughts welcome.
Although that does not explain the seemingly "settled" price of around $2 per key. Our best estimate is that keys are tied to refined metal in a 2:1 ratio in people's heads now (as are buds/bills). The price has to be near the official price but why not $2.25 or closer? The market has decided that for now the risk of buying a black market key is about $0.50 per key, that's it. If there was no waiting period, the value of an illicit key would be less as it was when there was no waiting period (remember those $1.65 key days on source op?).
More recently, the variance in the refined:key ratio has been getting narrower as well. The buy for 2 refined or sale for 2.33 refined are not unheard of but most often keys trade for 2.11 or 2.22 refined now. That is an efficient market and the sign the influx of the F2P players have made their mark. Some people complained about the new players, I say bring them on. They have reinvigorated the TF2 item market. With so many buyers and sellers keys trade at a more pinpointed price.
Additional thoughts welcome.
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