We get a lot of general questions from traders as to what's going on with the TF2 marketplace. While we try not to comment on day-to-day movements there are some trends we can speak to that are taking place.
Earbuds appear to have topped out at 26 keys roughly and have now retreated back to 22 keys as of today. Bills has made a similar backtrack from highs of 10-12 keys, now down to 8-10 keys (unpainted 8, white/black 10). Other higher priced items are also showing similar downward movements although most not as steep as bills/buds. Standard clean hats continue to flatten in the 1.33 to 1.66 refined range.
Keys fluctuate depending on the influx of new keys being bought but they have remained easily traded in the 2.44 - 2.55 refined metal range. Some will trade for 2.33, some for 2.66 (or equal value) but more will be 2/5 refined or that general area.
Strange Festive weapons have seen a jump in prices. There is no clear reason why but the high tier items began to sell higher and higher once buds topped and fell in price. From a purely supply standpoint it makes sense since these items are no longer available and can be considered a 'step-up' from already higher-priced regular strange items.
For pricing there are a few industrious souls out there asking some exceptionally high prices for the higher tiers but we see that there is a steady market for these items at the price ranges listed. Their tiers as of now appear to be from best to worst: Medi Gun, Scattergun, Bat, Rocket Launcher, Minigun, Sniper Rifle, Stickybomb, Wrench, Knife, Flamethrower (sorry pyro). Where they end up nobody knows.
Vintage items appear to have bottomed, particularly the higher-tier hats and weapons. V. Tossle Cap is the clear winner with V. Procedure Mask not far behind. Interestingly, a year ago the Troublemaker's was not the top tier it is considered now. That was reserved for the V. Procedure Mask and just below that the V. Whiskers. V. Ze Goggles were also up there. How things change in only a year.
Valve continues to release community items piecemeal every week on Thursdays. This will be taken for granted and likely to be changed by Valve just to keep you all on your toes. So far the items have been of decent quality. The Fast Learner is a popular item, perhaps the best so far at holding its value. The Teufort Tooth Kicker doesn't appear craftable yet, as only dirty versions appear to be available (let us know if you have one).
Let us know your thoughts also.