If you could visualize the prices of all the TF2 items out in the marketplace (and there's a LOT) as the horizon, you would see a panoramic of hills and valleys and some very tall peaks. With the height of the hill or mountain representing the value of the item. The highest peaks would represent items like Max/Buds/Bills (we're not considering unusuals here because of their subjective values).
Over the past six months the average height (value) of all those peaks has flattened towards 1 ref. No matter how "hot" the hat was, it's hill is shrinking. That's pretty simple to visualize and understand in economic terms. That is, with such a broad number of items, and with most widely available (except Genuine Maul maybe) their price always goes towards the lowest common denominator - the craft hat. Without the influx of thousands of F2P players, and some converting to paid players, the price flattening would have been even more severe.
Max/Buds/Bills on the other hand are all seeing a resurgence. Their peaks in our mountain example look even slightly taller and thinner now. Their actual values in $ terms has only come down modestly. Now they appear to be heading back up. With black market keys/refined metals (thanks sourceop) creating the market's REAL dollar values - at $2 a key and every seller asking for 5+ keys - a Bill's hat is a good investment again.
Interesting read. It does not seem that tons of noobs would only make bills appreciate a tiny bit. They do not like vintage stuff either.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, certain hats are increasing in value. Things like the Tosslecap, Blighted Beak, or the Familiar Fez. It seems that the F2P'ers becoming premium has lead to an upswing in the value of aesthetically desirable hats. This can also be seen with craft hats like Napper's Respite or Batter's Helm becoming higher in demand and thus value.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, some craft hats experience great scarcity due to their perceived lack of value and thus end up as crafting fodder the moment they are acquired. This can lead to some very frustrated players that seek a hatless engie or a whoopie cap.
Agree that there are hats that seem to hold their value at least. Tosslecap is a classic example. Batters too.
ReplyDeleteNappers I have to disagree with you on. I know some people like it but most that I run across think its a craft hat.
Hopefully Bill's keeps going up
ReplyDeleteMaxes dropped so much cos a guy had 50 or a 100 of 'm and was for a long time undercutting trades. now he's out of 'm and the price recovers.
ReplyDeleteThe infamous max head hoarder! Completely plausible but may be an urban myth as well. If true, other Max owners are certainly glad he has run out of inventory.
ReplyDeleteI think you should add some sort of craft number value because many people are having trouble with craft numbers.
ReplyDeletenew strange weapons today. values should be interesting along with crate 29
ReplyDeleteyes indeed. strange black box is going to be good. see today's post.
ReplyDelete